Identifying global hotspots of agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems

Abstract: Natural ecosystems are increasingly threatened by global agricultural supply chains, and a narrow policy focus on forests has fueled agricultural expansion into ecologically significant but severely overlooked non-forest ecosystems, including grasslands and open wetlands. While a few emerging policies attempt to protect non-forest ecosystems, a globally consistent assessment of their conversion extent and drivers, especially related to livestock production and commodity-specific supply chain demand, remains lacking. Here, we conducted a spatially explicit analysis to identify pasture and cropland expansion into non-forest ecosystems between 2005 and 2020, as well as conversion-linked primary agricultural commodities and their underlying demand drivers (end uses and final market destinations). We found that the conversion rate of natural non-forest ecosystems was nearly four times that of lands with tree cover exceeding 5 m (a common forest height threshold), with Brazil contributing 13% of the global total and Russia, India, China, and the United States each contributing about 6%. While drivers varied greatly across regions, globally 50% of the conversion was linked to pasture, and 27, 17, and 6% to cropland for food, feed, and other uses (mainly bioenergy), respectively. Among conversion-linked commodities, most livestock-associated products served domestic demand, while 32% of feed crops and 20% of all crops were exported, with export shares reaching 70 to 80% in Brazil and Argentina. These findings reveal important areas for non-forest ecosystem conservation and highlight the need for integrated policies to prevent leakage across different ecosystems and different sustainable development goals while also aligning local actions with global supply chain governance.