Identifying global hotspots of agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems

Abstract: Ecologically important non-forest ecosystems, including grasslands, shrublands and wetlands, face substantial threats from agricultural expansion, yet their conversion dynamics remain poorly understood. This study identifies global hotspots of land conversion from non-forest (and forest) ecosystems to cultivated lands from 2000 to 2020, including conversion within Protected Areas and its impacts for biodiversity conservation. Using three state-of-the-art land cover datasets (GlobeLand30, GLCLUC and GLC_FCS30D), we find extensive and increasing non-forest conversion, often comparable to or exceeding forest conversion. Protected non-forest ecosystems cover substantially smaller area than protected forests while experiencing disproportionately high conversion rates. Non-forest and forest conversion together affected habitats of over 5,000 threatened species, over half of which depend critically on non-forest ecosystems. Our study provides important insights for improved land cover data development, while offering companies and policymakers science-based evidence to design sustainable land-use policies and integrated policy frameworks that avoid trade-offs and support broad sustainability goals.