The Role of Market Share on the Effectiveness of ZDCs for Cattle


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Abstract: The cattle sector of the Brazilian Amazon represents the largest driver of tropical deforestation globally despite the presence of longstanding zero-deforestation commitments, supply chain policies that seek to disincentivize producers’ deforestation behaviour. Previous studies into the effects of these policies, both in the Amazonian cattle sector and elsewhere have found mixed results, but few have been able to control for variance in the market share of these companies, nor to accurately capture how market share changes due to variation in annual demand and individual firms’ sourcing behaviour. We provide spatially and temporally explicit estimates of the market shares of companies that signed the G4 and TAC policies, the two zero-deforestation commitments present in the sector and find that spatial differences in policy exposure and implementation help to explain differences in the two commitments’ abilities to conserve forests over space and time.

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